Article plays went 1-3 last week after the Falcons apparently forgot how to play football, the Steelers and Ravens decided to have a field goal kicking contest, and the Saints scored a 75-yard touchdown with two minutes left, up 14, rather than ramming into the line and ending the game. Ah, well, such is betting, and I’m sure in the long run, those things will even out, but they are certainly frustrating in the moment when you’re losing bets. We’re back at it with some Week 12 NFL best bets to start our week and try to rebound from Week 11. Let’s see what my T Shoe Index has cooked up for us this week:Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (+3.5; 39.5)
This line opened Minnesota -4 and was quickly nudged down to -3.5, where I still like the Bears as a division underdog at more than a field goal. My gut (and numbers) said to back the Bears last week against Green Bay. I chickened out because I thought they were on “quit watch,” but they battled and covered against the Packers (who were coming off a bye), so I’m going to back Caleb Williams and the Bears in a game that TSI projects as a 1 point Minnesota win. Both of these offenses are in the bottom 10 of the TSI ratings, and while the Vikings defense is rated higher, they’re both still in the top half of the league. I think this will be a sluggish, low-scoring divisional game, and the Bears can certainly keep it within the 3.5, if not win outright.Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Bears +3.5 (Play to +3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants (+5; 41.5)
This feels like a matchup where the market is going to bet on the Tampa Bay we saw early in the season, forgetting the recent Tampa Bay team that has been much more mortal, and is rated just six spots higher than the Giants in the T Shoe Index over the last five games. TSI projects this game at a pick ‘em, well short of the +5 you can get out there with New York. I like the aspect of the Florida team coming to New York in mid-November, where the Giants obviously have a climate-acclimation advantage. This game will be a contrast in styles, as the Bucs’ offense is top 10 and the Giants’ is bottom 5, but defensively, New York is top 10 and Tampa is bottom 10 in the TSI ratings, which measures how many points a team is expected to score/allow against the average team. Hold your nose and back the Giants here. You can blame TSI if they fail to cover.Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Giants +5 (Play to +4)
